logo
  Join        Login             Stock Quote

A Slight Jump for Jobless Claims Last Week

 October 04, 2012 10:34 AM


Jobless claims rose slightly last week, but the generally declining trend is still bubbling. New filings for unemployment benefits increased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000 for the final week of September. More importantly, the large drop reported a week ago is holding up and claims continue to drop each week relative to year-earlier levels.

Claims aren't making much progress on a week-to-week or even a month-to-month basis, but the numbers aren't rising either. The worst you can say about this leading indicator is that it's stuck in neutral. That's not helpful in the sense that it suggests that the labor market's growth will remain sluggish. At the same time, the fact that claims aren't persistently rising implies that economic growth, slow as it is, will struggle on.

[Related -Health Net, Inc. (HNT): Potential to Be Huge Winners Says Bank of America]

Claims data is especially noisy in the short term and so it's helpful to consider the year-over-year changes for a clearer profile. On that front, more of the same prevails, and that's a good thing, namely: claims continue to decline at roughly a 10% annual pace (in raw terms before seasonal adjustment). That's been an encouraging sign all along and it continues to be a bright spot that sends a strong message that jobs growth is still with us, and probably will be for the near term. When new claims start rising relative to year-earlier levels, we'll have a serious problem. But we're a long way from such a dark state of affairs, which is the main reason why this indicator overall continues to support the case for expecting growth rather than recession.

[Related -HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY) Q2 Earnings Preview: Top and Bottom Line Bullish Surprise?]

With today's claims report we now have a full set of numbers for September with this series. Although revisions may change the analysis at some point, the full month of claims at the moment provides us with another data point that brings mildly encouraging support for September's economic profile. Based on monthly calculations, jobless claims last month dropped 9% vs. September 2011. In other words, more of the same.

There are still many September economic reports to come, but so far, so good. The productive tally on monthly claims numbers follows yesterday's upbeat news on last month's activity in the services sector,manufacturing, and employment (via ADP).

Will tomorrow's employment report for September from the Labor Department close out the week on a high note? Briefing.com reports that the consensus forecast among economists for private payrolls in tomorrow's release sees a gain of 130,000 jobs for September, a bit higher than August's 103,000 advance. That's hardly impressive, but if it's accurate it would keep hope alive that slow growth rather than recession is still the path of least resistance.

"We're not going anywhere quickly in the jobs market," Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody's Analytics, tells Bloomberg. "The job market is just more of the same. Layoffs aren't the big problem, it's the lack of hiring."

That's not good enough to inspire forecasts for stronger growth, but it's not obvious that there's enough weakness to push the economy over the cyclical cliff either.

iOnTheMarket Premium
Advertisement

Advertisement


Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
 

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Q2 Earnings Preview: Will Higher Traffic Offset Higher Costs the Key

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) will host a conference call to discuss second quarter 2014 read on...

article imageNetflix, Inc. (NFLX) Q2 Earnings Preview: The Ruby Month for a Reason

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) will post its second-quarter 2014 financial results and business outlook on its read on...

article imageLadenburg Thalmann Financial Services (NYSEMKT:LTS): Heavy, Durable Insider Buying

Ahh, but any worries over price levels didn’t stop multiple insiders at Ladenburg Thalmann Financial read on...

article imageInternational Business Machines Corp. (IBM) Q2 Earnings Preview: Small Beat and Pop

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) will host a conference call Wednesday, Jul. 16, 2014 at read on...

Advertisement
Popular Articles

Advertisement
Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center



Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.