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How IBM’s Q3 Results Impact Tech Supply Chain

 October 18, 2012 04:50 PM
 

(By Mani) Technology bellwether International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) reported in-line earnings at $3.62 a share, while revenue missed the Street view of $25.38 billion after falling 5.4 percent to $24.75 billion.

Revenue from the systems and technology segment for the quarter plummeted 13 percent from last year. The segment experienced a 20 percent decline for its System Z mainframe server products, while system storage sales dropped 10 percent.

Global technology services segment revenues for the quarter fell 3.9 percent, and global business services dropped 6 percent. Estimated services backlog at the end of the quarter was $138 billion, edging up 1 percent from last year.

Armonk, New York-IBM also cut its full year 2012 earnings guidance to reflect the impact of UK pension-related charges. For the full year 2012, the company slashed its EPS outlook to at least $14.29 from previous forecast of at least $14.40, while reiterating its operating EPS outlook to at least $15.10. Street analysts predict $15.14 per share.

Let's see how the results of IBM would impact the technology supply chain.

Emulex Corp. (NYSE: ELX): Emulex provides network convergence solutions that connect IBM servers, storage, and networks within the data center. It generates about 35 percent of revenues from IBM.

"Given total systems (ex RSS and FX) revenues were down 6 percent year-over-year in the September quarter; its an incremental negative for ELX, given their expectation of revenues up 1 percent year-over-year in the September quarter," RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani wrote in a note to clients.

QLogic Corp. (NASDAQ: QLGC): QLogic generates about 18 percent of its revenues from IBM with greater exposure toward x86 server line through its switches, adapters, and storage routers. It has modest exposure to P & Z-series as well.

"We view the relative outperformance of System x (down 3 percent year-over-year) and total systems revenues (down  percent year-over-year) as a modest positive to our revenue expectation of down 10 percent year-over-year for QLGC," the analyst said.

Benchmark Electronics, Inc. (NYSE: BHE): IBM accounts for 10 percent of revenues to Benchmark, which provides PC boards, and related electronics systems. Given the Z- and P-series as a whole fell about 10 percent, this as an incremental negative for the company as they had guided revenues in September quarter down 3 percent sequentially. However, Benchmark would benefit in December quarter given IBM's expectations for 20 percent plus growth for System Z.

Celestica Inc. (NYSE: CLS):Celestica generates about 6 percent to 8 percent of revenues from IBM primarily from high-end servers and storage segment. The performance of the Z- and P-series product lines is an incremental headwind to the company's September quarter.

"CLS should benefit in the December quarter from IBM refreshing its System z and Storage product offering," Daryanani said.

Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL):Jabil gets about 2 percent to 4 percent of its revenues from IBM primarily from storage products. Storage revenues at IBM fell 8 percent excluding Forex, a modest deceleration from the second quarter when storage was flat with last year.

"We believe aggregate IBM results are a neutral to JBL's enterprise and infrastructure segment," the analyst wrote.

Flextronics International Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX): Flextronics, which makes printed circuit boards and electromechanical components, generates about 3 percent to 5 percent of revenues from IBM, primarily from IBM's System X servers. System X revenues fell 3 percent from last year, but advanced 48 percent sequentially, which is inline with seasonal trends.

"We view this as a modest positive for FLEX heading into the September quarter earnings as FLEX guided revenues up 2 percent (at the midpoint)," Daryanani added.


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