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Sector Performance Review: A Bullish Bounce Coming?

 October 30, 2012 01:28 PM

(By Rich Bieglmeier) Although the stock market had a rough go at it last week, many sectors moved into bullish columns, and few made our bear lists. Perhaps, it is a sign that the current rough patch has run most of its course.

The indexes do not just go straight up or down. Instead, trends are marked with action that resembles walking up or down stairs. In this case, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P are stringing a series of lower, pivot highs, followed by fresh lows together. It's been about as textbook an illustration of a downtrend as there can be.

As iStock mentioned in Monday's i On the Market, there are plenty of signs that indexes, especially the NASDAQ, are approaching short-term oversold readings. Relative strength for the tech-heavy index is nearing 30, generally the neighborhood where stocks and indexes perk up a bit. The NASDAQ is floating above its 200-day average. The benchmark trend-line is considered the buy/sell line, and the support line doesn't usually give way easily. Additionally, all three indexes are trading more than one standard-deviation below their 20 day-averages. Normally, the trio stays within a box, and reverts back towards the middle when it moves outside the box. Finally, momentum for the NASDAQ has turned positive.

All of these indicators add up to a bounce, and probably soon. The question is which sectors are likely to outperform if the tape turns green. Well, iStock's weekly sector performance review is designed to answer that question. As you'll see below, household goods made their way across the bullish lists in various fashions. When we see related industries in the same camp, it is usually a good sign Wall Street is headed that way.

EMERGING BULL: Industries with positive technical analysis traits that are in the early stages, indicating possible above average returns in the near-term:

  • Aerospace
  • Asset Managers
  • Autos
  • Gambling
  • Coal
  • Container & Packaging
  • Defense
  • Food Retail & Wholesale
  • Support Services
  • Gas Distribution
  • Non-Durable Household Goods
  • Trucking
  • Transportation

MATURE BULL: Industries that have outperformed and their charts suggest the above average returns could continue:

  • Specialty Construction
  • Financial Administration
  • Business Support
  • Pipelines
  • Pharma/Biotech
  • Recreational
  • Healthcare
  • Durable Household Products
  • Household Goods

MATURE BEAR: Industries that have underperformed and, based on their current chart patterns, could continue to lag:

  • Electronic Office Equipment

EMERGING BEAR: Industries that have fresh negative technical analysis set ups and could have sub-par performance in the weeks ahead:

  • Media
  • Fixed Telecom
  • Apparel Retail
  • Computer Hardware

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The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.