logo
  Join        Login             Stock Quote

Impressive Retail Sales Numbers From China, But 2015 Target Seems Aggressive

 November 12, 2012 10:45 AM


The chart below from Trading Economics shows China's total retail sales of consumer goods %YoY. The October number came in at 14.5% a bit ahead of expectations - definitely a strong result.
Source: Trading Economics

[Related -Xerox Corp. (XRX): An Insider’s $500,000 Insider Buy]

When looking at the year-over-year numbers, it is difficult to appreciate the notional increases in retail sales. The absolute growth in RMB terms is quite spectacular.

Source: ISI
A very rough estimate puts the retail sales at RMB 20 trillion for 2012. According to some estimates, China's GDP for 2012 will be around RMB 50 trillion (closer to 51 according to World Bank - if anyone has a better projection please send us a note). That puts consumer spending in China at (very roughly) 40% of the GDP. Note that this represents just consumer goods - excluding services. Beijing wants that number higher, as it tries to transition to a more consumer driven economy. Apparently the target is to get to RMB 32 trillion by 2015 - a 60% increase from current levels (17% growth per year). That's a fairly aggressive target, given that most of this year growth was under 15%.

[Related -Qihoo 360 Technology Co Ltd. (QIHU) Q2 Earnings Preview: A Green Monday]

For now export growth, particularly to the US (see discussion), will be the key driver of China's GDP. And with the US consumer confidence hitting new highs (see chart) as the holiday season approaches, China may be in luck.

iOnTheMarket Premium
Advertisement

Advertisement


Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
 

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageMBIA Inc. (MBI) : BTI's $12 a Tough Task

MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI) is doing well on a day stocks are struggling The guarantee insurance company is the read on...

article imageUrban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) Q2 Earnings Preview: A Snug Fit

Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) will hold a webcast to discuss its second quarter of fiscal-year 2015 read on...

article imageEstee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Q4 Earnings Preview: Options Player Betting On EL’s EPS Looking Pretty

Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) will release fiscal 2014 fourth quarter and full year financial read on...

article imageHerbalife Ltd. (HLF): 3 Reasons To Pay Attention to Recent Insider Buying

Well, well, well… it looks as if boardroom buyers viewed the recent selloff as an opportunity to buy. read on...

Advertisement
Popular Articles

Advertisement
Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center



Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.