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The Market Ticker - Another Shot

 November 15, 2012 02:22 PM


Another craptastic report....

Firms responding to the November Business Outlook Survey reported declines in business activity this month following the disruptive effects of Hurricane Sandy on the region. The survey's indicators for general activity, which had shown improvement in October, fell back into negative territory this month. Firms reported slight declines in shipments, employment, and hours worked. Indicators for the firms' expectations over the next six months were near their levels in the previous month, but expectations for future employment and capital spending have weakened in the last two months.

[Related -Thoughts on MetLife and AIG]

You have to love how they blame this on Sandy; I don't buy it.

The general activity index detonated along with both new orders and shipments, both of which were negative previously.  And employees and workweek, while not declining as fast as last month, are still in decline.

The major point here is that Sandy didn't drop either employment index; the premise that the storm was involved in this thus looks tenuous at best, as it does not appear to have had any sort of impact on the firms in this region on a direct basis.

Of course there may be some in terms of consumption of what these firms produce, but that should -- if true -- shortly return due to rebuilding.

[Related -A 2016 Recession Would Be Different]

I don't think so -- I think last month was an anomaly and we're in for a series of additional negative prints, but we shall see.

Incidentally this report and more-importantly the series of reports from the regionals screams "Inbound Recession!"

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