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How and Why a Spanish Default Would Trigger an Epic Financial Meltdown

 November 23, 2012 12:17 PM


Over the last week I've introduced the concept of collateral: the little known basis for the entire financial system. We've also addressed why any EU sovereign default would bring about an epic meltdown as EU bonds, particularly those of Spain and Italy are the collateral underlying hundreds of trillions of Euros worth of trades for EU banks.

Again, the most important issue for the financial system is the search for high quality collateral.

Indeed, it is the search for high grade collateral that has caused such periodic spikes in Treasuries, German Bunds, French sovereign bonds, and Japanese bonds (all of these have yielded 0% or even negative yields in the last five years). Big banks are moving away from PIIGS bonds into safer havens.

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This is also why the Fed isn't touching Treasuries with QE3 and why it won't touch short-term Treasuries with Operation Twist 2 (this program sees the Fed selling short-term Treasuries to buy long-term Treasuries): the Fed wants to keep as much good quality collateral in the system as possible (long-term Treasuries are problematic because institutions know it's highly likely the US will default within the next 30 years).

However, even this move is problematic because much of the Treasury market is locked up with governments both foreign and domestic.

Total US Sovereign Debt$16 trillion
Foreign Nation holdings$5 trillion
Intergovernmental holdings$4.8 trillion
US Federal Reserve$1.5 trillion
Remaining$4.7 trillion

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Again, this is why clearinghouses (which oversee the derivatives markets) are now allowing Gold as collateral: they know that eventually sovereign bonds will be worth less or even worthless. And they want access to their clients' Gold for when this happens.

With that in mind, the countries that will ultimately be considered safe havens when the BIG collapse starts are those with the largest Gold reserves.

CountryGold Holdings% of Foreign Reserves in Gold
The US8,133 tonnes75.1%
Germany3,395 tonnes71.9%
Italy2,451 tonnes71.3%
France2,435 tonnes71.6%
China1,054 tonnes1.6%
Switzerland1,040 tonnes14.2%
Russia918 tonnes9.2%
Japan765 tonnes3.1%
Netherlands612 tonnes60.2%
India557 tonnes9.8%

I'm not going to get into the issue of whether this Gold exists still (many commentators claim that Central Banks have in fact sold much of this) as I have no way of proving it. The key issue is that the financial elite are now trying to get their hands on Gold as collateral because they realize that sovereign paper based collateral from the EU will soon be worth much less or even worthless.

It is no coincidence that Germany floated the idea of accepting other EU nation's Gold in exchanged for bailouts back in May 2012 when Europe teetered on the brink of collapse:

Europe's debtors must pawn their gold for Eurobond Redemption

Southern Europe's debtor states must pledge their gold reserves and national treasure as collateral under a €2.3 trillion stabilisation plan gaining momentum in Germany.

The German scheme — known as the European Redemption Pact — offers a form of "Eurobonds Lite" that can be squared with the German constitution and breaks the political logjam. It is a highly creative way out of the debt crisis, but is not a soft option for Italy, Spain, Portugal, and other states in trouble.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9298180/Europes-debtors-must-pawn-their-gold-for-Eurobond-Redemption.html

It's also not coincidental that Germany is performing an audit of its Gold holdings today, either.

Bundesbank Says NY Fed to Help Meet Gold Audit Request

The Bundesbank said the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will help it meet auditing requirements related to its gold reserves that were demanded by Germany's Audit Court.

"We have been in discussions with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York about the Bundesbank's holdings of gold," the Bundesbank said yesterday in a letter to the German parliament's budget committee. "The discussions have been fruitful and the Federal Reserve has expressed a commitment to work with the Bundesbank to explore ways to address the audit observations, consistent with its own security and control processes and logistical constraints."

The agreement is part of a compromise between the German central bank and the Audit Court, which has called on the Bundesbank to take stock of its gold holdings outside Germany, saying it has never verified their existence.

The Bundesbank distributed the letter to reporters after board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele and the Audit Court's head Dieter Engels testified to budget committee lawmakers in the lower house of parliament in Berlin.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-25/new-york-fed-to-help-bundesbank-meet-gold-audit-requirements.html

I realize that the last few essays have been pretty dense. So I'll summate everything here:

1)   The #1 issue for the financial world is too little quality collateral backing too many trades.

2)   The search for good collateral has lead investors to seek high grade sovereign bonds (Treasuries, German bunds, French bonds, Japanese bonds) as a safe haven between 2008-the present.

3)   The folks who monitor the derivatives market (the large clearing houses) realize that sovereign bonds are not going to be a safe haven for much longer and so are looking at Gold as a new form of collateral for trades (this has NEVER been the case before).

4)   Germany and other nations will be increasingly looking to audit and accumulate their Gold holdings.

Keep all of this in mind at all times going forward. This is the BIG picture for the financial world.

This is why I've been warning that 2008 was just the warm-up. What is coming will be far far worse: the collateral crunch that will ensue when Spain or Italy defaults (they have €1.78 trillion and €1.87 trillion in external debt respectively) will be absolutely massive. At a minimum it will be multiples of times larger than what followed Lehman's bankruptcy.

If you're looking for someone who can help protect yourself from this mess and even profit from it, I can show you how. My clients made money in 2008. And we've been playing the Euro Crisis to perfection, with our portfolio returning 34% between July 31 2011 and July 31 2012 (compared to a 2% return for the S&P 500).

Indeed, during that entire time we saw 73 winning trades and only one single loser. We're now positioning ourselves for the next round of the Crisis with several targeted investments that will explode higher as the EU crumbles. Already three of our picks are up more than 5% in the last week.

To find out what they are, and take steps to protect your portfolio from the inevitable collapse…

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