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Is Citi's "Grexit" Probability too High?

 November 27, 2012 01:59 PM


It is clear that Greece will need some form of debt restructuring and the Eurozone leadership seems to be committed to getting that done (see discussion). They may just need a bit of a push from the markets. But many still believe that Greece will also exit the EMU. Citi research for example has assigned a 60% probability to "grexit".

CNBC: - "In Greece, debt restructuring is unavoidable whether Greece exits the euro area (our base case, with a 60 percent probability in the next 12-18 months) or not," Citi said. 

[Related -A Delicate Balance For US Macro Outlook Via Treasury Yields]

This probability is quite high - particularly given that the Germans seem to be committed to keeping Greece in (because they fear the "domino effect"). The prediction markets however seem to be saying something very different. The latest Intrade odds for "grexit" by the end of 2013 are close to half the figure from Citi.

Any country currently using the Euro to announce intention to drop it before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013

[Related -Two Firms On The Cusp Of A Major Turnaround]

Those who believe Citi's number should be buying this contract right now. So far however those who bet on this event seem to prefer selling the contract.

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