logo
  Join        Login             Stock Quote

Is Citi's "Grexit" Probability too High?

 November 27, 2012 01:59 PM


It is clear that Greece will need some form of debt restructuring and the Eurozone leadership seems to be committed to getting that done (see discussion). They may just need a bit of a push from the markets. But many still believe that Greece will also exit the EMU. Citi research for example has assigned a 60% probability to "grexit".

CNBC: - "In Greece, debt restructuring is unavoidable whether Greece exits the euro area (our base case, with a 60 percent probability in the next 12-18 months) or not," Citi said. 

[Related -Crude Rebound]

This probability is quite high - particularly given that the Germans seem to be committed to keeping Greece in (because they fear the "domino effect"). The prediction markets however seem to be saying something very different. The latest Intrade odds for "grexit" by the end of 2013 are close to half the figure from Citi.

Any country currently using the Euro to announce intention to drop it before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013

[Related -The Fed Remains Optimistic On The US Economy For 2015]

Those who believe Citi's number should be buying this contract right now. So far however those who bet on this event seem to prefer selling the contract.

iOnTheMarket Premium
Advertisement

Advertisement


Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
 

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageCrude Rebound

Since the price of crude oil broke below $90 per barrel in September, the Brent global benchmark has been read on...

article imageShould You Invest In The Hottest New Trend In Finance?

Thanks to major changes in regulation, social media and technology, the business of banking has undergone read on...

article imageStrong Attractor in Action Pulling S&P 500 Down

The attractor is formed by the 200-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from read on...

article imageIs The Weak Housing Market A Warning Sign For The US Economy?

Today’s US economic releases – housing starts and business survey data for the manufacturing sector – read on...

Advertisement
Popular Articles

Advertisement
Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center



Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.