logo
  Join        Login             Stock Quote

Goldman: No Recovery For Spain Until 2015

 November 30, 2012 01:24 PM


Spain's large temp labor force (see discussion) should help reduce unemployment quickly, once recovery takes hold. But given the sorry state of the banking system (see post), when do economists actually expect Spain's economy to begin growing again? The latest forecast from Goldman shows that it will be some three years before even a modest real GDP growth should be expected.

Purple = forecast (source: GS)

[Related -Will The Real U.S. Market Please Reveal Itself?]

What's amazing is that earlier this year many mainstream economists were projecting a "short and shallow" recession (see discussion). In fact economists have been consistently lowering their forecasts all year. The chart below from Goldman shows the consecutive worsening of the 2013 forecast for Spain's GDP growth.

Source: GS

[Related -Time To Chase Bill Gross?]

Given Spain's limited ability to grow its debt levels (simply because the market and the EMU will not let them), the debt to GDP ratio is expected to level off just under 100% on a gross basis. And simply for reference (and many people will take issue with this comparison), the US is already at 100% debt to GDP on a gross basis.

Purple = forecast (source: GS)
iOnTheMarket Premium
Advertisement

Advertisement


Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
 

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageWill The Real U.S. Market Please Reveal Itself?

Is it the small stock Russell 2000, in a pattern of rally attempts failing at lower highs since its March read on...

article imageTime To Chase Bill Gross?

Jason Zweig at the Wall Street Journal had a very good piece on whether to follow Bill Gross as he goes read on...

article imageA Bullish Sign For Uranium Could Send This Stock Soaring

On March 11, 2011, a massive 9.0-magnitude earthquake erupted about 45 miles east of the Japanese coast. read on...

article imageBanks' LCR-based Demand For Treasuries Moderates

One of the factors contributing to treasury market's strong performance this year has been the Liquidity read on...

Advertisement
Popular Articles

Advertisement
Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center



Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.