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Scandinavian Kroner Set For Downward Correction Vs. EUR?

 December 04, 2012 10:59 PM


The Norwegian Krone has continued its bull run against the Euro. Hitting fresh multi-week highs against the 16-nation currency, the NOK currently trades near 8.1550 versus the EUR. While the US Dollar made hefty gains versus the NOK in recent weeks, it appears that the Krone is back on its way to erasing those gains as of this week.

The NOK climbed as high as 5.5383 against the greenback before dropping as a result of the Dollar's year-end run. As of this morning, the USD/NOK is reaching back towards 5.6200 with few signs of a correction impending.

Sweden's currency, on the other hand, doesn't seem to be fairing as well as its Norwegian neighbor. The Swedish Krona experienced similar losses against the greenback during its bullish run in December, but its ability to regain those losses appears muted.

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It had reached as high as 6.7833 before plummeting against the buck, but has regained less than half of the price which it lost. However, the SEK was able to regain all of its losses made to the EUR at year-end, which seems to suggest that the SEK's inability to regain losses made against the Dollar may be due more to the American economy than Sweden's.

Price targets for the Swedish and Norwegian Kroner against the USD seem somewhat straight forward. Both appear to be on a bullish run against the greenback and may continue doing so for the coming week. A target of 100-150 pips from current price levels could be a safe bet. Against the EUR, on the other hand, both appear to be giving off hints of a downward correction and traders should anticipate this movement before going long on the Kroner against its European counterpart.

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Technical Analysis

- As mentioned above, the SEK and NOK are giving off hints of a downward correction versus the EUR. This technical analysis will highlight those indications for the EUR/NOK pair.

- The chart below is the EUR/NOK daily chart by ForexYard.

- Point 1: A doji candlestick formation has apparently taken place yesterday, indicating a reversal may be imminent.

- Point 2: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing that this pair is heavily over-sold and may be experiencing strong upward pressure.

- Point 3: There is a fresh bullish cross on the Stochastic (slow) which highlights the impending bullish move. The Stochastic also appears to have turned upwards, meaning this movement may in fact be underway.

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