logo
  Join        Login             Stock Quote

November Job Growth Slows... Because Of Hurricane Sandy?

 December 05, 2012 10:11 AM


Private payrolls in the U.S. increased by 118,000 last month, according to the ADP Employment Report. As expected, that's a slowdown from October's 157,000 rise (on a seasonally adjusted basis). Many economists will chalk up the slower rate of growth to Hurricane Sandy's negative influence. Maybe. For now, it's a plausible argument. Nonetheless, today's ADP number tells us to remain cautious on expecting anything other than a comparably lower rate of jobs growth when the Labor Department publishes the official November payrolls report on Friday.

"Superstorm Sandy wreaked havoc on the job market in November, slicing an estimated 86,000 jobs from payrolls," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, the firm that crunches the ADP numbers. "The manufacturing, retailing, leisure and hospitality, and temporary help industries were hit particularly hard by the storm."

[Related -Old Bank's New Breakout has Big Rally Potential]

Not everyone agrees, but for the moment there's not much to do but wait for the next number. If Friday's Labor Department update is considerably weaker than expected, the business cycle outlook will darken further. Actually, the consensus forecast is already discounting a sizable slowdown in the government figures: a gain of around 95,000 for private payrolls in November, or half as much as October's 184,000 pop. If that estimate holds up, Friday's update will bend but not yet break the argument that payrolls have succumbed to the darker angels of the cycle.

[Related -A Mixed Bag Of US Economic Data For May… So Far]

What might change the dynamic to something more agreeable? A resolution of the fiscal cliff nonsense would help. Indeed, by some accounts, the economy still has a fundamental capacity for growth. "Outside of Sandy, I think businesses are still hiring," opines Gus Faucher, an economist with PNC Financial Services. "There's underlying job growth that's strong enough to employ new entrants into the labor force as well as some of those who lost their jobs going into the recession."

That's an intriguing theory, but one that will take time to prove, or not. The next clue comes in tomorrow's weekly jobless claims report. The consensus outlook sees more repair and recovery after the hurricane-related surge in new filings from a few weeks back. But the R&R is expected to be mild, with only a slight drop to 380,000 from the previous week's 393,000. Better, but still sluggish enough to keep everyone guessing.

iOnTheMarket Premium
Advertisement

Advertisement


Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
 

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageOld Bank's New Breakout has Big Rally Potential

One of my favorite things to see in a long candidate is a pattern of beating Wall Street's earnings read on...

article imageIs The Stock Market's 5-Year Return A Useful Proxy For Valuation?

Tobin’s Q, a market-valuation metric, is back in the news, in part thanks to a widely read Bloomberg read on...

article image4 Dogs To Sell Immediately

Despite the chorus of analysts and investors calling for the long-awaited correction, the market is showing read on...

article imageThe Fed's Magical Mystery Tour

What's going on at the Fed? Notorious dove, Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed, gave a speech in read on...

Advertisement
Popular Articles

Advertisement
Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center



Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.