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CPI Slowing For November In Canada

 December 24, 2012 10:02 AM


On Friday our friends left Canadians a Christmas Gift announcing that the Consumer Price Index increase year over year (ending in November) was only 0.8% (i.e. Inflation).

Consumer prices rose 0.8% in the 12 months to November, following a 1.2% gain in October. The November increase was the smallest year-over-year gain in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since October 2009.

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So prices are slowing, but for what reasons, you might ask? Gasoline prices are moderating (for now, but over Christmas expect price gouging at a very non-festive level (IMHO)) and thus CPI is moderating as well.

CPI for Past Little While

If you look at the following graph you'll see how gasoline prices have moderated a little over the past little while too!

Gasoline Index for Past Little While in Canada

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Given the new indications that our friends down south may have found a short term fix to their Gasoline gorging with their reserves in previously inaccessible areas, wonder if Gas prices may plummet as they did in the 80's? Given China will continue needing Oil, maybe the prices will simply moderate, but what will this do to alternate energies, which relied on Oil being higher priced? Should be interesting for the next few years.

Bank of Canada's core index

The Bank of Canada's rate is a little higher, but nothing to cause them to want to raise interest rates (yet).

The Bank of Canada's core index rose 1.2% in the 12 months to November, following a 1.3% increase in October.

On a monthly basis, the seasonally adjusted core index posted no change in November after increasing 0.1% in October.

The seasonally adjusted big picture graphic shows a drop of the curve (wow):

Seasonally Adjusted CPI over past little while

The Big Table

I love the big table because it shows you all the details of each part of the CPI, so have a look and see where you are paying even more these days:

Consumer Price Index and major components, Canada - Not seasonally adjusted

Relative import1Nov 2011Oct 2012Nov 2012Oct to Nov 2012Nov

2011

to Nov 2012

%(2002=100)% change
All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI)100.002120.9122.2121.9-0.20.8
Food15.99129.2130.5131.40.71.7
Shelter27.49126.3127.6127.5-0.11.0
Household operations, furnishings and equipment11.55112.1113.5113.70.21.4
Clothing and footwear5.3193.194.792.5-2.3-0.6
Transportation20.60127.6128.6127.3-1.0-0.2
Health and personal care4.95117.9118.5118.70.20.7
Recreation, education and reading11.20104.8106.6106.1-0.51.2
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products2.91135.8137.8138.30.41.8
Special aggregates
Core CPI382.15118.8120.2120.20.01.2
All-items CPI excluding energy89.92118.2119.2119.30.10.9
Energy410.08154.1159.5153.8-3.6-0.2
Gasoline5.80175.2186.6175.9-5.70.4
All-items CPI excluding food and energy73.93115.7116.7116.70.00.9
Goods47.80113.8114.5113.8-0.60.0
Services52.20127.8129.8129.90.11.6

1.2009 CPI basket weights at April 2011 prices, Canada, effective May 2011. Detailed weights are available under the Documentation section of survey 2301 (www.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/2301-eng.htm).

2.Figures may not add to 100% as a result of rounding.

3.The Bank of Canada's core index excludes eight of the Consumer Price Index's most volatile components (fruit, fruit preparations and nuts; vegetables and vegetable preparations; mortgage interest cost; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; inter-city transportation; and tobacco products and smokers' supplies) as well as the effects of changes in indirect taxes on the remaining components. For additional information on the core CPI, please consult the Bank of Canada website (www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-control-target/).

4.The special aggregate "Energy" includes: electricity; natural gas; fuel oil and other fuels; gasoline; and fuel, parts and supplies for recreational vehicles.

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