Join        Login             Stock Quote

Insiders Have Been Net Sellers For Some Time

 December 31, 2012 01:04 PM

One of our first screens is insider buying and selling.  Although we think  from time to time we might have some perspective or glint of information correct that the maddening crowd has perceived wrong, we don't delude ourselves into thinking that we have a better bead on what's going on than the people running the business do.  Right now must of them have been sellers as noted in the graph below courtesy of the Washington Service. Click on it to enlarge.  The faint pink horizontal line is the normal ratio of buyers/sellers.  Anything above the line is heightened buying and below is a pick up in selling.

[Related -Automating Ourselves To Unemployment]

This year I am treating this information a little differently.  The Bush tax cuts on capital gains are sure to be either ended or amended in 2013.  What you were thinking about selling today is a lock now when faced with the prospect of paying substantially more taxes on the gains if you wait until 2013 to sell.  It's easier to rationalize the preponderance of selling versus buying to the unusual tax year rather than a gloomy outlook.  At least that's how I'm playing it.

I also believe next year will show pent up insider demand.  For example, what you took profits on this year, you can buy back almost immediately for many insiders (short swing rules, blackouts, and the like.)  I expect to see pent up demand once Congress settles the fiscal cliff debate and a sense of normalcy returns.  After all stocks are an incredible buy in this ultra-low interest rate environment in spite of weak demand for them.  At some point the housing market is going to get frothy and the Fed will most likely quietly slow down their purchases of mortgages and dampen the real estate rally.  Stock will only be slowed down by a real and significant rise in interest rates or a collapse in economic activity.  Neither of which are on the immediate horizon.



Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageAutomating Ourselves To Unemployment

In this current era of central planning, malincentives abound. We raced to frack as fast we could for the read on...

article imageFed: Waiting For June… Or Godot?

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday, as widely expected. But the possibility of a read on...

article imageThe Single Best Place To Invest Your Money For Retirement

It was never supposed to be this daunting. At least that's what we were read on...

article imageNegative Blowback From Negative Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today. But perhaps standing pat read on...

Popular Articles

Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center

Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.