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Euro Turns Bearish Ahead Of ECB Press Conference

 February 07, 2013 09:57 AM

Concerns about what the European Central Bank (ECB) would discuss at today's press conference with regards to the EU economic recovery, resulted in the euro turning bearish throughout most of yesterday's trading session. Additionally, other higher-yielding assets, including crude oil and the Australian dollar, took losses as investors shifted their funds to safe-haven assets. Today, in addition to the ECB press conference, scheduled to take place at 13:30 GMT, market volatility is also expected following the release of the weekly US Unemployment Claims figure.

Economic News

USD - Dollar Sees Gains amid Investor Risk Aversion

The US dollar saw gains against its riskier currency rivals, as concerns regarding the outcome of today's ECB policy meeting boosted safe-haven assets. The USD/CHF gained more than 60 pips during European trading, eventually reaching as high as 0.9148. After dropping some 15 pips against the Canadian dollar during early morning trading, the greenback was able to bounce back later in the day. The USD/CAD advanced more than 30 pips to eventually reach as high as 0.9987 toward the end of the mid-day session.

[Related -Automating Ourselves To Unemployment]

Today, in addition to the potentially significant ECB Press Conference, dollar traders will want to pay attention to the US Unemployment Claims figure, scheduled to be released at 13:30 GMT. Analysts expect today's figure to come in at 361K, slightly below last week's 368K. If the expectations turn out to be true, investors may take the news as a sign that the unemployment situation in the US is improving, which could lead to additional bullish movement for the greenback during afternoon trading.

EUR - All Eyes on ECB Press Conference Today

[Related -Fed: Waiting For June… Or Godot?]

The euro took losses against several of its main currency rivals yesterday, as concerns regarding the economic situation in the euro-zone caused investors to shift their funds to safe-haven assets. The EUR/USD fell more than 50 pips during the European session to eventually trade as low as 1.3493. Meanwhile, the EUR/JPY lost close to 140 pips during mid-day trading to eventually reach as low as 126.00.

Today, the euro-zone Minimum Bid Rate and ECB Press Conference are expected to be the highlights of the trading day. While the ECB is not forecasted to adjust euro-zone interest rates, the press conference will be closely watched for clues as to the current state of the economic recovery in the region. Any indication of an economic slowdown in the euro-zone is likely to weigh down on the common-currency during afternoon trading.

Gold - Despite Minor Upward Correction, Gold Remains Bearish

Gold was able to stage a minor upward correction during mid-day trading yesterday, but remained bearish overall as recent US dollar gains made the precious metal more expensive for international buyers. Prices increased some $10 an ounce to trade as high as $1677.90 before dropping back to the $1675 level toward the end of the European session.

Today, gold traders will want to pay attention to the ECB press conference, scheduled to take place at 13:30 GMT. Any signs that the euro-zone economic recovery is slowing down are likely to weigh down on the precious metal and cause prices to slide during afternoon trading.

Crude Oil - Risk Aversion Causes Oil Prices to Tumble

The price of crude oil tumbled during European trading yesterday, amid risk aversion due to concerns regarding the euro-zone economic recovery. Prices fell some $1.60 a barrel, eventually trading as low as $95.01 before bouncing back to $95.30 toward the beginning of the US session.

Today, analysts are warning that the price of oil could see additional bearish movement if the ECB signals during their press conference that the euro-zone economic recovery is slowing down. That being said, a lower than expected US Unemployment Claims figure could limit any losses oil prices take.

Technical News


The weekly chart's Slow Stochastic is close to forming a bearish cross, indicating that a downward correction could occur in the near future. Additionally, the same chart's Relative Strength Index has crossed into overbought territory. Opening long positions may be the smart choice for this pair.


The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart has fallen into oversold territory, indicating that an upward correction could occur in the near future. Furthermore, the MACD/OsMA on the daily chart appears close to forming a bullish cross. Traders may want to open long positions.


The Relative Strength Index on the weekly chart has cross into overbought territory, indicating that a downward correction could occur in the coming days. This theory is supported by the Slow Stochastic on the same chart, which has formed a bearish cross. Opening short positions may be the smart choice for this pair.


While the weekly chart's Williams Percent Range has crossed over into oversold territory, most other long-term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

The Wild Card


The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart has fallen into oversold territory, indicating that an upward correction could take place in the near future. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bullish cross. This may be a good time for forex traders to open long positions ahead of possible bullish movement.

Article Source: Euro Turns Bearish Ahead of ECB Press Conference



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