logo
  Join        Login             Stock Quote

January Economic Updates Continue To Trend Positive

 February 22, 2013 10:11 AM


With this week's January updates on consumer inflation and residential building permits, three more indicators fall into place for last month's estimates of The Capital Spectator Economic Trend & Momentum indices (CS-ETI and CS-EMI, respectively). In all three cases, the additions land on the side of growth, providing more statistical support for assuming that January 2013 is likely to remain recession-free in the month's final edit for NBER's macro history book.

[Related -Market Needed a Yellen Bump and Didn't Get It.]

Earlier this week, I updated the January profile for CS-ETI and CS-ETI and the overall trend continued to show a bias for growth. But the analysis was based on an incomplete data set. With three more data points to consider, the data set is missing fewer pieces and so the January profile looks a bit more persuasive.

Here's a brief tour of the latest data updates:

Real retail sales decelerated last month, rising just 0.1% over December. The year-over-year rate, however, reflected a more encouraging 2.8% gain. That's about average for the annual rate posted in each month over the past year.

[Related -Will The Sluggish US Housing Market Perk Up This Year?]

Meanwhile, the year-over-year change in the real monetary base (M0) accelerated in January, advancing 2.2% vs. a 0.3% annual gain through December. In fact, last month's increase in M0 vs. the year-earlier level is the highest annual rate of growth since last April.

Newly issued building permits continued to trend higher in January, rising 1.8% over December. On a year-over-year basis, permits increased 35% through this year's first month, or near the fastest pace since the recession ended.

The remaining unknowns for the January inputs for CS-ETI and CS-EMI are real personal income and spending, and real manufacturing and trade sales. Considering the preponderance of growth for the numbers published so far, however, it's getting easier to assume that the January read on the economy will remain positive once the final updates are in.

February and beyond, of course, are a mystery. Questions about the impact from the automatic federal budget cuts scheduled to begin next month threaten to slow economic growth. Considering the modest rate of expansion, some analysts say the odds will increase that the business cycle will slip over to the dark side if Congress doesn't intervene to soften the blow from the forced spending reductions. If the relatively upbeat January profile gives way in the months ahead, we'll see the deterioration in the data. Stay tuned….

iOnTheMarket Premium
Advertisement

Advertisement


Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
 

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageWill The Sluggish US Housing Market Perk Up This Year?

Housing remains a weak spot for the US economy, as suggested by yesterday’s news of a bigger-than-expected read on...

article imageThe Only Homebuilders To Own Right Now

Now is the time to invest in the housing market, but you must be read on...

article imageUS Economic Growth Slows in Q4

US GDP growth fell short of expectations in last year’s fourth quarter, the government reports. National read on...

article imageReversals After a Gap on the Open Could Mean Anything

Yesterday stock indexes gapped up on the open but then reversed course to close sharply lower. This type of read on...

Advertisement
Popular Articles

Advertisement
Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center

Related Articles:

The Only Homebuilders To Own Right Now
More Articles on: Economics Data



Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.