Join        Login             Stock Quote

A Weak GDP Revision & A Healthy Drop In Jobless Claims

 February 28, 2013 10:14 AM

The second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP for the US shows that the economy eked out a small gain in the final three months of 2012. The 0.1% increase for Q4 is a slight improvement over the 0.1% decline in the initial report. But as revisions go, this one's close to insignificant. By contrast, today's weekly jobless claims update offers more encouraging news. Good thing, too, since claims offer a more-timely read on the macro trend for the near term.

[Related -Searching For Solid Support In The Face Of Global Headwinds]

The number of people filing for jobless benefits last week dropped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 344,000. As a result, claims are close to the cyclical low of 333,000 reached in mid-January 2013. The four-week moving average of claims also dipped last week, showing a modest bit of renewed momentum to the downside.

The year-over-year change in claims also posted a sizable drop in today's update. New claims fell 8% last week vs. the year-earlier level. That's a strong signal for anticipating that the labor market will continue to mint jobs on a net-positive basis for the foreseeable future.

[Related -Long-term Relationships and Credit Scores]

If the weak Q4 GDP report is a harbinger of trouble for the economy in 2013, there are minimal signs of blowback in today's claims report. No one can rule out future turmoil, of course, particularly since the uncertainty of the government's scheduled budget cuts is set to start tomorrow and extend through the weeks (months?) ahead. Or will Congress intervene and soften the automatic cutting? Meantime, to the extent that jobless claims are a valuable leading indicator—and they are—there's a good case for expecting that next week's February report on US payrolls (March 8) will deliver a familiar refrain for this key indicator: modest growth.
iOnTheMarket Premium


Post Comment -- Login is required to post message
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:

rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageLong-term Relationships and Credit Scores

Unlike many commentators, I tend to think credit scores are a good read on...

article imageIn Defense Of Rolling Return Charts

Robeco’s Lukas Daalder has a bit of an issue with rolling-performance graphics. Bashing a recent chart of read on...

article imageThe S&P 500’s Worrisome Downturn In Drawdown

Last Friday I reviewed some of the bearish signals that were casting dark shadows across the US stock read on...

article imageADP: Private-Sector Employment Rises A Solid 200k In September

The pace of growth for private-sector employment picked up in September, according to this morning’s ADP read on...

Popular Articles

Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center

Related Articles:

In Defense Of Rolling Return Charts
More Articles on: Economics Data

Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.