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A Quick Blackberry Update - Z-10

 April 17, 2013 04:19 PM

A couple of observations...

First, while Dropbox does not directly monitor video and picture files on the Blackberry (as it does on Android) Box does, and provides the same service on the Z-10.  This is a serious omission on the part of Dropbox since it's now clear that it's no big deal to handle!  And just like Dropbox, once "connected" with your common login it looks like a filesystem and thus integrates itself into the Z-10 file browser just as Dropbox does.  Cool.

Second, Jefferies was out this morning with a very bullish report and re-iteration of their $22 price target.  They apparently have been checking with Asia and now believe that the phone builds have been recently increased to more than 2M devices per month.  They're also expecting revenues of $4.1 billion and 50 cents/share in EPS (from estimates of 3 cents!) which would be an insane blow-out.

[Related -Why Is BlackBerry (BBRY) Soaring This Morning?]

In addition they believe they have evidence of 2-3 additional models to launch (after the Q-10) this year, which mirrors my expectation just based on what I would expect Blackberry to do -- they are looking for a mid-priced handset with and without a keyboard and a 5" form-factor touch screen around the end of the year.

Now I find the premise of a 5" screen in a cellphone to be too damn big but a lot of people like it, and it sells in the Samsung line.  Were I a woman or always wore suits where I could fit it in my jacket pocket without much drama, I might want it.  As it stands I like the Z-10's form-factor which is more akin to the SGS-II as it stands.

[Related -BlackBerry (BBRY) Options Using the IB Probability Lab]

The real news here, however, is what they said about Detwiler Fenton's claim that the Z-10 is seeing "more returns than sales":

Our anecdotal U.S. discussions contradict recent allegations that Z10 returns are exceeding sales. Overall, our checks indicate typical return rates. Of the few phones that were returned, the only main commonality we found is that buyers thought the Z10 had a keyboard. As it does not, they returned it and will buy the Q10 instead.

I'm not willing to sacrifice screen space for the keyboard, especially considering how well the keyboard works on the Z-10.  Seriously -- this is the best on-screen keyboard I've ever seen both in terms of accuracy and the fact that in addition it learns your typing patterns and predicts words without them getting in the way makes for ridiculously fast and accurate on-screen keyboarding.

My SGS-II still sits in the drawer, cold and dark, roughly three weeks into Z-10 ownership.  Battery life remains amazing and while the phone isn't perfect there's no piece of technology that is.

I'm not going back to Android.



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