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More Gaps To Fill

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:45:46 GMT

Back a few weeks ago we posted some names that had "gaps" to fill in their charts (Jun 22: Gaps Filling and To Be Filled?) - James River Coal (JRCC) has filled its gaps, and we also listed Research in Motion (RIMM) and A-Power Energy (APWR) - here are updates on their progress; both of these of course would require a swan dive. [More...]

Market Vectors Coal (KOL) Red Hot

Wed, 20 May 2009 16:48:00 GMT

Coal was one of our best performing sector groups in latter 2007 through summer 2008. While much of the focus of late has been on natural gas, the coal stocks have been ripping in even larger magnitude. I was a bull on coal over natural gas (although the market in its student body left trading simply moves all commodities together) because of the portability of coal over natural gas. We were early on this theme as the market was so focused on oil stocks at the time, and made a lot of money (Dec 6, 2007: Coal Stocks Quietly in Bull Market) I wrote a bevy of pieces about this 1.5 years ago... but again, the market is not very granular nowadays; it likes big sweeping themes that are simple: i.e. commodities good. I have a litany of posts on just about[More...]

Two-Month Rally Rolls On

Tue, 05 May 2009 01:17:31 GMT

The stock market indices started off the week with a bang. There was a big gap up at the beginning, a very strong follow on rally, a mid-day consolidation, and a strong afternoon thrust especially on the S&P 500. Despite the fact that the Nasdaq 100 trailed, by the end of the day it caught on and they closed at the highs for the day going on both indices as well as the Dow. Net on the day the Dow was up 214.33 at 8426.74, and the S&P 500 up more than 3 percent at 907.24, up 29.72. The Nasdaq 100 was up 31.34 at 1427.96. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was up 14.12 at 272.31. Advance-declines were about 6 to 1 positive on New York and 21 to 6 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was about 17 to 1 positive on New York on total volume of less than 1.7 billion.[More...]

AP: Recession Resistant Coal Feels the Squeeze

Tue, 03 Feb 2009 18:49:00 GMT

Coal was one of our biggest winners in late 2007 thru mid 2008. Until HAL9000 (the quant fund computer who treats all commodity stocks the same) took over, I used to have a thesis that on a RELATIVE basis fertilizer and coal would outperform commodities as a whole - because after all, heat and food are relatively inelastic demands a human would prefer to have. HAL blew my thesis up. I'm gobsmacked (love those English terms) at the charts in this group - worst of breed, best of breed, metallurgical, thermal - doesn't matter. Weapons of mass capital destruction. We own one that has held up well but only on a RELATIVE basis... i.e. instead of losing all 4 limbs, it's only lost 3. Nine months ago you wanted companies who had unsigned contracts so that you could benefit from[More...]

Playbook For The Week

Mon, 12 Jan 2009 04:23:00 GMT

Now that the market has lightened up a bit on the "student body left" (or right) trading ("sell everything! buy everything!") we can spend some more time sorting out good charts from bad. Except in times of extremes - this is a market of stocks, not a stock market. Below I'll break out some of the stocks that we made some changes to last week, and others of interest with commentary.... 1) We had been holding off on adding to Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) as noted Thursday waiting to see if it was reading to break up, or down... the answer the next morning was down. The answer was down, but after flushing out to $20 it bounced right back to $22, where we took the[More...]

Earnings Preview For Nov 3 - 7 - Earnings Preview

Sat, 01 Nov 2008 01:58:00 GMT

Companies that could issue positive surprises include Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX), SucessFactors (SFSF) and Sunoco (SUN). Penn Virginia Corporation (PVA) could potentially disappoint investors. The Week's Events November has historically been one of the best months for the major markets, according to the[More...]

Short Picks for Wednesday

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 06:04:00 GMT

Today the market rallied on low volume, led by homebuilders, commodities, and emerging markets. With so many sectors at support, it is difficult to determine near-term direction. However, I am finding more setups for short side trading, and my sector overview hints at a bearish bias.Today's leading sectors are doubtful leaders for a more sustained rally. It feels as though the market is waiting for some kind of news to initiate the next major move, probably something relating to the financial sector. Therefore, it is more of a day trader's environment until we either break support or experience clearer signs of[More...]

Periodicals Wrap-Up for Tuesday, August 5th

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 14:28:00 GMT

Submitted By Optiondragon[More...]

Wilbur Ross Believes M&A Activity in Coal Will be Unprecedented in Next 12 Months

Sat, 19 Jul 2008 16:45:00 GMT

First, thanks for a reader for highlighting this story.[More...]

Bookkeeping: Closing Arch Coal

Wed, 09 Jul 2008 16:49:00 GMT

We're starting to get portfolio bloat with 60 long positions so I'm cutting the coal basket by 1 name - and Arch Coal (ACI) will be the one to go. I like *every* name in this space, but for now those who are identified more strongly with metallurgical coa[More...]