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Positions Revisited

Wed, 23 Sep 2009 16:32:28 GMT

I want to revisit some of my stock decisions and see what was the outcome and analyze if there is anything I should have done better. I will try to be intellectually honest with my assessments and recognize my errors. Also i want to look back and see if there are any mental traps that affected my decisions and recognize when i fall for these psychological biases. Below is all the positions that I have talked about on this blog for over a year or so. All are businesses that I looked to own but did not or I bought and sold. General Growth (GGPWQ): I have dismissed the value in[More...]

REITs Quietly Sell Stock Overnight At A Discount; Next Day Pop Fries Shorts

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 22:24:16 GMT

If Frank Quattrone could start over, he would be a REIT banker. REITs staged a huge rally this quarter, almost $15 billion in new equity has been raised through 45 public offerings this year, and even the Italians are descending upon New York to list new deals. With REIT stocks now being served up like Cannolis on Columbus Day, and consumed almost as fast by shell-shocked but somehow still hungry investors, you may have one question: What is Going On? One reason is that REITs cram down desperately need the money, and while not all are teetering on the brink insolvency, most will do almost anything[More...]

REIT Stocks Sold Quietly Overnight At A Discount; Next Day Pop Fries Shorts

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:40:12 GMT

If Frank Quattrone could start over, he would be a REIT banker. REITs staged a huge rally this quarter, almost $15 billion in new equity has been raised through 45 public offerings this year, and even the Italians are descending upon New York to list new deals. With REIT stocks now being offered up like Cannolis on Columbus Day, and consumed almost as fast by shell-shocked but somehow still hungry investors, you may have one question: What is Going On? One reason is that REITs cram down desperately need the money, and while not all are "twittering" on the brink insolvency, most will do[More...]

Short Interest Update

Sun, 01 Feb 2009 18:27:00 GMT

If you are an avid short seller, the financial sector is of particular interest. I did some research on short interest levels for various financial-related industries and, as a whole, the sector's short interest level was down 3% (as of Jan 15th). The industries researched are the 1) broker-dealers, large banks, 2) securities processors, 3) regional banks, 4) online brokers, 5) specialty/mortgage finance, 6) life insurance, 7) asset management, 8) p&c insurance, and 9) reinsurance. The largest increase in short interest came from the securities processors, up +42% (partially thanks to STT: +86%). The runners up were the broker-dealers and large banks, up 8%. Next came asset management with a +4% increase. Life insurance saw a 0% increase, and all other sub-sectors saw a decrease in short interest[More...]

NRF Now Forecasts Retail Decline

Tue, 27 Jan 2009 20:40:00 GMT

Here we discuss JC Penney (JCP), Nordstrom (JWN), Target (TGT) and Wal-Mart (WMT). This morning the National Retail Federation (NRF), the world's largest retail trade association, released its economic forecast for 2009. The NRF expects retail industry sales, which excludes autos, gas stations and restaurants, will decline 0.5% compared to 2008. Here are the specifics: "'Most of the consumer[More...]

Debt With Equities Like Returns

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 16:20:00 GMT

Debt seems to be a theme for me over this year. most of my purchases were in debt related instruments. I have invested in Commercial real estate debt, bank loans and the quasi debt preferred shares. 1. Purchase of bank loan Close-end-fund PHD at $6.75: The Credit markets recovered over the few weeks particularly in the non government debt. Some of the funds that I was analyzing for[More...]

Is Commercial Real Estate Loan Performance Really Improving?

Wed, 17 Dec 2008 18:06:00 GMT

Believe it or not, there was some good news for the beleaguered Mortgage REIT sector last month. Fitch said that commercial real estate CDO loan delinquencies actually fell in November. Translation: commercial real estate loans backing the CDOs that many Mortgage REITs issued by the bucketful were actually performing better, on average, than they had in the previous month. Whether this reflects a reduction in the number of CDO loans that are likely to completely blow up (Alesco, Crystal River, Deerfield, Taberna, etc.) or improving fundamentals remains to be seen, since much of the improvement was simply the result of loan extensions. As far as the data, Fitch reported that the delinquency rate for commercial real estate collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, fell to 2.8% last month. This was down from 3.13% in October and it marked the first decline since July. However, there were 45 new loan extensions in[More...]

Thanksgiving Stocks - Zacks Industry Rank Analysis

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 16:10:00 GMT

Highlighted stocks include Hot Topic Inc. (HOTT), Hormel Foods (HRL), JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) and Winn-Dixie (WINN). Thanksgiving has implications for many industry groups. Therefore, I thought it would be timely to follow up on these groups, all of which have been featured in this column before. Thanksgiving[More...]

Word On The Street - 11-17-2008

Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:02:00 GMT

With the countdown to the holidays soon to begin in earnest, the mood on Wall St. couldn’t be less holly or jolly. After finishing at 1,499.21 on Wednesday - its lowest close since May 21, 2003 - the NASDAQ rallied strongly the following day[More...]

I'm Sorry, I Haven't A Clue

Thu, 13 Nov 2008 13:42:00 GMT

There is a long and glorious history of transatlantic cross-fertilization when it comes to television programs and other forms of entertainment. Staples of the US television landscape such as Sanford and Son (Steptoe and Son), American Idol (Pop Idol), and The Office (The Office) all started life on the British airwaves. It appears as if US policymakers have seized on the idea, re-incarnating the popular UK radio show I'm Sorry, I Haven't a Clue.[More...]

St. Petersburg Times, Fla., Ivan Penn column: eBay says 'consumer warning' really just retail giants' bad blood

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:50:00 GMT

Nov. 7--Just in time for the holidays: a shopping fight between retailers and eBay.
The National Retail Federation issued a consumer warning this week about various household items being sold through "some online auction sites, warning that these items could be stolen or tainted."
But Kathy Grannis, a spokeswoman for the retail federation, didn't leave it just at eBay.

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Positions Revisited

REITs Quietly Sell Stock Overnight At A Discount; Next Day Pop Fries Shorts

REIT Stocks Sold Quietly Overnight At A Discount; Next Day Pop Fries Shorts

Short Interest Update

NRF Now Forecasts Retail Decline

Debt With Equities Like Returns

Is Commercial Real Estate Loan Performance Really Improving?

Thanksgiving Stocks - Zacks Industry Rank Analysis

Word On The Street - 11-17-2008

I'm Sorry, I Haven't A Clue

St. Petersburg Times, Fla., Ivan Penn column: eBay says 'consumer warning' really just retail giants' bad blood

Why Wait for Black Friday? Deals Abound Now.

Holiday Spending Expected to Drop: A 1st Since Tracked in '02: Shoppers Plan to Cut Back

Comparisons to Last Year Make Economic Numbers Look Rosier

Holiday Sales Expected to Fall: But the Projected Drop of 1 Percent is Less Than Last Year's Decline.

Little Cheer Anticipated for Retailers

An Ideal Industry No More

With No Budget, Connecticut's Sales Tax Holiday Makes No Sense

Back-to-School Shopping Shifts to High-Tech Gadgets for Oklahoma Students

Jobs Picture Could Slow School Sales

NorthStar Realty Finance Announces Second Quarter Common Stock Dividend

NorthStar Realty Finance Declares Quarterly Dividend on Series A and Series B Preferred Shares

NorthStar Realty Finance Announces Second Quarter 2009 Earnings Conference Call

BenchmarkJournal.Com Free Analyst Review for ONB, EDU, IRF, KB, DHT and NRF

NorthStar Realty Finance Announces First Quarter 2009 Results

NorthStar Realty Finance Declares Quarterly Dividend on Series A and Series B Preferred Shares

NorthStar Realty Finance Announces First Quarter Earnings Conference Call

NorthStar Realty Finance Announces Results of Fourth Quarter 2008 Dividend Elections

NorthStar Realty Finance Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Results

NorthStar Realty Finance Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2008 Earnings Conference Call

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