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Home Prices Continue To Rise

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:28:53 GMT

This morning the S&P Case-Schiller index was released. The Composite 20 index (C-20), which covers 20 of the largest metropolitan areas in the country rose by 0.27% on a seasonally adjusted basis (home prices are seasonal, so the adjusted data is what you should be looking at -- most of the press makes a mistake by focusing on the unadjusted data, thus these figures might vary from what you read elsewhere). That was the fourth straight increase. The Composite 10 (C-10) index, which is a subset of the Composite 20, but which has a longer history, posted a 0.36% increase for the month.[More...]

Will It All Come Tumbling Down?

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 15:40:47 GMT

Let's juxtapose two stories. First, from Bloomberg: Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- More than 150 publicly traded U.S. lenders own nonperforming loans that equal 5 percent or more of their holdings, a level that former regulators say can wipe out a bank’s equity and threaten its survival. Ok. Now how about this one? WASHINGTON[More...]

Monday's Link Bonanza: Aug 17, 2009

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 18:18:13 GMT

I have to say there was an incredible amount of good reading over the weekend. One of the best things I read but I thought was too out there for some readers was a conspiracy theory piece[More...]

Case-Shiller May Numbers Continue To Show Stabilization

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 18:42:16 GMT

The Case-Shiller numbers are out for May and they continue to show a slow improvement in the overall housing market. For May, 15 of the 20 cities managed to show either flat or monthly housing price increases. In April 9 cities were either flat or increasing. Even the cities showing declining prices are doing so at a decreasing rate. Here is the summary chart from the Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog. (About the numbers: The Case Shiller indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000. So a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the metro market.) Home[More...]

WSJ: As Boom Times Sour in Las Vegas, Upward Mobility Goes Bust

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 16:50:17 GMT

An excellent article in the Wall Street Journal on a topic we've been following since blog inception in 2007: Las Vegas. (Oct 3, 2007: A Top in Casino Names? Wynn and Las Vegas Sands) Long time readers know I targeted Las Vegas as one of the canaries in the coal mine - as really there is no better city to represent the excess of America. We had the crossroads of housing speculation with conspicuous consumption, all in 1 spot - I mean where better else to observe homo [More...]

Phoenix for Canadians

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:24:50 GMT

Further to my recent post on Phoenix stocks, I was asked by my Canadian friends for a Phoenix list for Canadian stocks (as I am living in Canada). The problem is that the Canadian stock market is full of low-priced stocks, a key criteria of the Phoenix screen. Consider the members of S&P/TSX Composite Index, 29.8% of its members are priced below $10 a share, compared to 10.6% for the S&P 500. Even if we lowered the cutoff to $5, 8.7% of the S&P/TSX Composite trade below $5, compared to 3.2% for the S&P 500. Moreover, the Canadian market is full of low-price mining stocks that you could take a punt with, here is an example (which is not a suggestion to buy or sell the stock).[More...]

June Phoenix update

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 13:28:04 GMT

By request, here is the latest update on the Phoenix list: ACCO Brands Corp (ABD), American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings I (AXL), ArvinMeritor Inc (ARM), Belo Corp (BLC), Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc (CCO), Crosstex Energy Inc (XTXI), Dana Holding Corp (DAN), Delta Petroleum Corp (DPTR), Developers Diversified Realty Corp (DDR), Eastman Kodak Co (EK), Emcore Corp (EMKR), EW Scripps Co (SSP), FCStone Group Inc (FCSX), Ferro Corp (FOE), First Industrial Realty Trust Inc (FR), Gannett Co Inc (GCI), Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co (GAP), Hercules Offshore Inc (HERO), ION Geophysical Corp (IO), iStar Financial Inc (SFI), Phoenix Cos Inc/The (PNX), Sunrise Senior Living Inc (SRZ), Technitrol Inc (TNL), Warren Resources Inc (WRES), YRC Worldwide Inc (YRCW) and Zale Corp (ZLC).There are 26[More...]

Allegiant Travel (ALGT) 2.3M Share Offering and Surging April Traffic

Tue, 05 May 2009 20:39:14 GMT

Allegiant Travel (ALGT) made good on the shelf filing we pointed out a few weeks ago (Apr 24: Bookkeeping - Adding to Allegiant Travel) ; it has now gone down twice on the same news item; typical market "logic". Via AP Allegiant Travel Co. is planning to sell 2.3 million common shares in a secondary offering. About 2.25 million shares will be offered by Allegiant's second-largest shareholder, PAR Investment Partners, and the rest by Timothy Flynn, who sits on the company's board. After the sale, PAR will own over 1.9 million Allegiant[More...]

Quant Funds And Market Rallies: All Rotten?

Mon, 04 May 2009 01:22:19 GMT

Anytime I see a well-written article by another college student, I pay extra attention. Such is the case with Naufal Sanaullah’s piece on why he thinks this recent rally is unsustainable. It’s quite a comprehensive bearish argument, with good points about the technical aspects of trading and a number of shots at the accuracy of last quarter’s bank earnings – and it will also serve as a good starting point for me to assess my own view of where the market is going. Still, I couldn’t help but be struck by the conspiracy-heavy undertones (most of which were backed by links to Zero Hedge – which provides a lot of thought-provoking pieces, none of them ever being positive). I’m not going to argue on points about CDS trades with AIG, because there are[More...]

Turning Japanese And Understanding The Consequence Of Policy Half-Measures

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 14:05:31 GMT

This is another post I originally ran on Naked Capitalism last month. As you know, I have turned more positive about the potential for a cyclical economic recovery. However, I am unchanged regarding much of the sentiment expressed in this post - that any upturn must be considered with suspicion because the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. and global economies remain poor (See my post on macro disequilibria to see why). My personal view at this time is that we will get a rebound of uneven quality, the prospect of which will be supportive of financial markets.[More...]

Paramount Energy Trust completes second stage transaction regarding Profound Energy Inc.

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 22:03:00 GMT

CALGARY, Aug. 13 /CNW/ - Paramount Energy Trust ("PET" or the "Trust") (PMT.UN) and Profound Energy Inc. ("Profound") (PFX) are pleased to announce that, at a special meeting of Profound shareholders held today, the shareholders of Profound approved the amalgamation of Profound and PET's indirect wholly-owned subsidiary, 1463072 Alberta Ltd. ("1463072") and that the amalgamation has now been completed. The amalgamation constitutes the second stage transaction to the offer dated April 24, 2009 of 1463072, for all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Profound.[More...]