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Nouriel Roubini: The Coming Commodities Correction

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:12:37 GMT

The chairman of RGE Monitor shares his bearish outlook on commodities for 2010. Too much supply, not enough demandChina can't be ‘main engine of growth’$100 oil would mean ‘double-dip recession’[More...]

Hedged

Mon, 09 Feb 2009 13:46:00 GMT

The Kelly Letter took advantage of the two-day rally last Thursday and Friday to open a hedge against another leg lower in the market. We had previously set a limit buy price on the hedge 13% lower than its Jan. 30 close. I explained to subscribers in a note sent Feb. 1 that the reason we went with a price so much lower was "to allow excitement over the passage of the stimulus bill to send the market up (and this ETF down), ahead of the letdown to follow." We got the excitement part right. Will we get the letdown part right, too? Most people think not. There's growing consensus that Wall Street is about to embark on a "monster rally" to S&P 1000, which is 15% higher than Friday's close. Don't cross off that letdown just yet, though. The[More...]

A Recurring TARP Nightmare

Mon, 26 Jan 2009 23:19:00 GMT

While the deployment of the second iteration of TARP is being discussed on Capitol Hill, there were a couple of very distressing pieces of news that I read today. The first piece from the Wall Street Journal showed that based on banks own reports, 10 of the 13 largest beneficiaries of TARP are lending less now that they have $148 billion in TARP[More...]

Obama’s Honeymoon Faces Daunting Tasks

Wed, 21 Jan 2009 14:04:00 GMT

This post deals with an article from Nouriel Roubini's RGE Monitor, providing an insightful look at the daunting economic and geo-political challenges facing the President Obama. Please visit my website (by clicking on the heading above) for the full article, as well as other interesting investment snippets. [More...]

IMF And The Baltics

Wed, 24 Dec 2008 14:35:00 GMT

The ink on the post below suggesting that I would wind down for Christmas (and exam preparation) has hardly dried before I am forced back into action (more or less that is). And the occasion? Well, I am not going into too much background here, but one event important to remember (out of so many this year) was the announcement of the € 1.7 billion IMF stand-by-agreement for the Baltics. The bail-out plan itself is not so interesting in the sense that it has been on the drawing board for a some months, but the juicy part was the firm IMF position that the euro pegs should remain (and presumably that this means a future for Euro membership). This surprised me since I have been relentlessly arguing that whatever kind of route the Baltics would take out of the current mess it would be one in which the pegs would[More...]

The Challenges Facing Obama

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 14:26:00 GMT

This post, courtesy of RGE Monitor, provides an insightful look at the economic and other challenges facing the US's 44th President. Please visit my website (by clicking on the heading above) for the full article, as well as other interesting investment snippets. [More...]

Roubini: World Economy Faced By Stag-Deflation

Thu, 30 Oct 2008 15:08:00 GMT

Read this post for some paragraphs from the latest newsletter by Nouriel Roubini's RGE Monitor, providing a thought-provoking summary of the key issues facing the global economy. Please visit my website (by clicking on the heading above) for the full article, as well as other interesting investment snippets. [More...]

Americans Should Worry About Bank Deposits

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 23:12:00 GMT

Top Economist: Americans Should Worry About Bank Deposits if Congress Doesn't Act[More...]

Japan - The Recession is Here

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 14:53:00 GMT

It has been a while since I last had Japan under the spotlight where and where I noted that Japan almost certainly would be tumbling into or very close to recession. Since then, data have been pointing only one way really and with the recent downward revision of an already quite awful Q2 GDP reading Japan now seems certain to be flirting with a recession.As per usual, I will peruse the most recent pile of data but now that Japan stands on the brink of yet another recession in the 21st century, I also think that it also finds itself confronted with a crucial question. What will happen to spending and the political situation in the wake of Fukuda’s resignation? I am no political specialists, but I will try to highlight the[More...]

The Mortgage Option

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 06:16:00 GMT

It's a case where market psychology became more important than the fundamentals, and that's why they had to act. There's no immediate crisis. It's not like they're going to run out of money tomorrow or Monday. It's a decision that the market is simply not going to accept the status quo. Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.Is it just me or do others notice how often unwanted changes in market prices (or, in this case, difficulties in clearing) are attributed to "psychology" or "speculation." The same chaps who cheered the rapid ascent of US equity prices during the 90s as a sign of US superiority (no psychology or speculation driving that!) now decry the rise in oil prices as speculatively driven and argue, as per the above, that with housing values falling and unemployment rising, international investor fears of GSE Mortgage Bonds defaulting is just psychological.Evacuating[More...]