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International Paper (NYSE:IP): Upgraded To Buy At Deutsche Bank

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 13:47:00 GMT

Packaging/Paper group is on fire today after Packaging Corp. of America (NYSE:PKG) blew estimates away last night. International Paper (NYSE:IP) looks to be the best play on PKG's results (up 15-16% pre mkt): - Deutsche Bank is upgrading IP to Buy from Hold and upping their price target to $24 saying that while significant risks remain, it is clearer & clearer that the containerboard industry has managed itself in a fundamentally different fashion over the past year. Prices reported in the trade papers have dropped $70-80/ton off last autumn's cyclical peak. However, prices were reported stable in June and appear stable again in July. Moreover, most industry players remain[More...]

Traders' Increasing Tolerance For Risk - Market Analysis

Fri, 01 May 2009 16:02:08 GMT

Traders' Increasing Tolerance for Risk Yesterday, one of my friends asked why the markets continue to climb. My first response was "more people are buying than selling". After a quick grin, I explained that there has been a shift in risk tolerance. If we look at some of the stocks that have rallied since March - Citigroup (C), Ford (F), Temple-Inland (TIN) - it's apparent that traders are bidding up the call option on these companies' long-term viability. In some cases, there is reason to think current shareholders will eventually end up alright (after ignoring opportunity cost).[More...]

The Meek Continue To Dominate Equities

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 05:49:10 GMT

Early in April after a month long run off the bottom I posted a list of equities that gained at least 60% in the preceding 4 weeks (Apr 5: The Meek Shall Inherit the Earth: 92 Stocks Over $10 Returning 60%+) The list was a whose who of beaten down merchandise. Generally, by week 4-5 of an oversold rally these type of names begin to peter out but the ramp has been relentless in lower quality, low price stocks. My gut tells me quant (and other varieties) of hedge funds have been shorting these names, using fundamental reasons - expecting some pullback after huge runs - only to be run over again and again even in week 6 and 7 of this rally. All it takes nowadays is saying "business has stabilized at the worst levels we've seen in decades" to elicit glee and massive short covering rallies. While the market was flattish last week, I[More...]

January 13, 2009: Conglomerates, Easy Pickings?

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 05:03:00 GMT

Back in the good old days of Dow 900, the Chevy Nova and Jimmy Carter's brother urinating on an airport runway after a few too many Billy Beers, companies that bought companies for no other reason than to enlarge were blessed as conglomerates and traded in a similar fashion to techs in the mid-90s (without the 24/7 media hype and talking heads goading potential investors, of course). Investors soured on them when the realization set in that many of these acquisitions were bought for no sane reason and then poorly managed into fiscal oblivion. Conglomerates may well be returning to favor. This time, a few are focused using the Buffet model and others are straight-up value plays that may prove to be winners when the economy rebounds - maybe even a bit earlier. Sure, there are companies of this genre that are stinkers, but a few may offer compelling returns over time. Here are some that are presently trading below a PE of 10, based upon[More...]

Double And Triple Profit Ideas For 2009

Fri, 19 Dec 2008 14:32:00 GMT

FY2008 week 51 Quote of the week: I stopped believing in Santa Claus when I was six. Mother took me to see him in a department store and he asked for my autograph. – Shirley Temple Here are eight stocking stuffers to unwrap. 1) The conversation between Libertarians and the rest of us (who aren't on some nutty fringe) would go a lot smoother if we would all agree that laws and regulations do not prevent bad behavior. Rather, they are merely guideposts to measure the quality of deviance in a way that allows the US's local, state and federal judiciary to hand out retribution. If you need further proof of this, I offer you two words – Bernard Madoff. In an under-regulated world, Ponzi schemes might not be illegal. In fact, you can assume that is a near certainty, judging by the number of famous[More...]

Best Perfomers Over Last Quarter

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 06:14:00 GMT

It is a moot point looking at weekly winners this week; just a handful of stocks moving up led by such growers as Campbell Soup (CPB) aka "people will still need to eat soup if nothing else" trade. So instead I am going to look at the best and worst performers the past 3 months. In this post we have every stock over $1.25B in market cap returning 15%+ (115 stocks) Now keep in mind the data is a bit misleading because 3 months ago at this time we were in the throes of another painful correction, in a series of step ladders down. About 90 days ago Fannie and Freddie and Lehman were falling off a cliff, and we were just over a week away from Hank Paulson going to Congress to create a plan to backup Fannie/Freddie. So this was a "bottom" and the financials rallied hard for the next 6-7 weeks - Fannie/Freddie of course were officially taken over within 2 months from that point.[More...]

The United States May Be The Next Banana Republic

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:32:00 GMT

With this announcement, the US has stepped into a realm formerly reserved for such lofty icons of global financial dominance as the Wiemar Republic, Argentina, and Zimbabwe.[More...]

Nine Stocks, Finally Some Decent Setups!

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 16:15:00 GMT

A few solid potential plays, gonna be hard for me considering this week I’m staying at a Buddhist Temple on Mt. Koya, hot springs resort near Mt. Fuji, then climbing the mountain itself, then flying to Canada on Thursday…but the setups are there, so those[More...]

A Round-Up

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:38:00 GMT