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Beating Up Old Media

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:43:00 GMT

So the latest development in the Old Media vs. New Media war is the Associated Press moving to restrict the use of their content on various web sites, which has of course upset those who believe in "free information sharing" in addition to the owners of the individual web sites themselves. In light of several newspapers having closed over the past year (or being in danger of same), the usual talk from the "tech world" has been around the newspaper industry having "dropped the ball" due to not having embraced technology enough or just going along with the program. However I think that this[More...]

Technical View From Marketwatch Options Expert

Mon, 09 Mar 2009 14:20:00 GMT

"The broad market, broke down sharply this past week, taking out the November lows in the process and generally spread severe gloom along the way," says technical expert David Nassar. In his Marketwatch Options Trader, he reviews the technical state of the market and looks at MF Global (NYSE: MF)[More...]

Bullish Signs For The Inflation Trade

Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:55:00 GMT

As the world waits for China of “will they or won’t they stimulate more”, there are increasingly bullish data points that line up for the inflation trade everywhere. We hate you guys The elephant in the room is how the U.S. and the rest of the world pay for all this fiscal stimulus. The most obvious path is to print money. Despite China’s enormous reserves, China can’t hold up the world but is getting increasingly frustrated with it: Even at the elite level, the sense of frustration occasionally bubbles over. "We hate you guys," Luo Ping, a director-general at the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), complained last week on a visit to New York. "Once you start issuing $1-$2 trillion . . . we know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you[More...]

ETF Update: The Fear Trade

Mon, 23 Feb 2009 03:42:00 GMT

One of the strongest features of a trading system is that it forces the user to look beyond the human interpretation of data. Evaluating systems can be done through appropriately designed tests. Evaluating human management is nearly impossible. There is never enough data, and circumstances change. Even Warren Buffett is now drawing criticism. A system forces one to re-examine fundamental principles, looking for possible exceptions. Let us suppose for a moment that there is a divergence between our expectations -- for the economy, for profits, and for stocks -- and the general market perception. With a long enough time horizon, an investor can, and perhaps should, act upon those expectations. Even so, it would be even better to time entry points to coincide with the changing market. Our trading method, looking at Trends, Cycles, and including a bit of Anticipation, considers which ETF's[More...]

A Tale of Two Competing Head and Shoulders

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 15:00:00 GMT

A very interesting development is taking shape on the daily US Equity Index Charts - there appears to be two distinct - and opposing - Head and Shoulders formations taking shape… and we’re at the break-out point of both patterns. Let’s see these and what they might imply. S&P 500 Daily: I’ve never seen two such patterns form in the same price structure on the same timeframe - this is unique! First, let’s start with the Inverse Head and Shoulders, which I’ve colored Green because it has bullish (upside) potential. The formation is a slanted pattern, with current neckline around 825 to 850. A break[More...]

Reflecting On 2008, Looking To 2009

Thu, 08 Jan 2009 16:09:00 GMT

Stephen Frankola sends: Some reflections on 2008: The presidential candidate promising “change” has now promised to deliver more of the same (but worse)… bigger deficits, bigger government, more spending, and more bloat. I changed my major from finance to accounting due to my observations and expectations about the job market in two years. Accounting seems like a much safer choice The stock market performed poorly during the year, and even more poorly during certain months (October). I lost a lot of money. Looking forward to 2009: I’ll begin regularly posting again! It’s now the time of year when Whacks Wax, my business, is in full swing. I’m hoping[More...]

As It Was In The Beginning, So Shall It Be In The End

Mon, 05 Jan 2009 21:31:00 GMT

In yesterday's NY Times Paul Lim has a sort of What Should Investors Do Now article. As the title implies, the article questions many, if not all, of the assumptions investors have about how to have long term success investing in the capital markets. The viewpoint (as I read it) of the article is that it may take a long time for[More...]

Market Curiosities

Fri, 19 Dec 2008 13:38:00 GMT

So many issues -- so little time. Let us try a few quick takes on some current issues. Selling the GE News. We watched with some wonder as selling ensued on the basis of a the announcement by S&P of a negative outlook for GE's triple A bond rating, perhaps in two years. Surely the issue was widely known, as is Jeff Immelt's determination to avoid this outcome. If investors doubt his plan, why wait until the S&P announcement? Additionally, when did everyone suddenly decide that the ratings agencies "got game." At one moment they are the villains of the CDO fiasco, but now they know better. Were we alone in this reaction? No, we see that the astute team at Bespoke Investment Group is on the[More...]

November 2009 Thoughts/Roadmap

Fri, 14 Nov 2008 20:33:00 GMT

Every so often I write an economic forecast/predictions for a 6 month period ahead, but have not updated my latest calls from December 2007 because frankly they have pretty much all hit on the head and there has not been much to update. But since it has been nearly a year, and government involvement has changed the landscape so radically it is time to do another look ahead. To see my history of calls I will refer you to my original roadmap in August 2007 (Aug 31, Et tu, September?) and then a review of those calls ([More...]

Almost Family With A Stellar Quarter

Fri, 07 Nov 2008 14:32:00 GMT

Almost Family (AFAM) is another reader nomination in the "good charts" category - the volatility has been enormous - trading from mid $30s to low $50s in the past few weeks. Website here. Almost Family, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide home health care services in Florida, Kentucky, Ohio, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Alabama, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri, the United States. It operates in two segments, Visiting Nurse (VN) and Personal Care (PC). The VN segment provides a range of Medicare-certified home health nursing services to patients in need of recuperative care, typically following a period of hospitalization or care in another type of inpatient facility. The PC segment provides services in[More...]