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MARKET COMMENTARY (7-16-09)

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:21:21 GMT

As you may know, I bought CIT yesterday, and minutes later, the stock was halted pending news. Currently, the government is refusing the bailout CIT and the stock is under the very serious threat of bankruptcy. This is a 9.5% allocation. This was a high-risk[More...]

Consolidation Phase Favors Bulls

Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:40:10 GMT

Taking a look at index and sector ETF charts, most consolidated during the past week. Until price breaks out of consolidation, neither bulls nor bears hold the advantage. At the same time, the dominant trend is still higher, and support levels are generally closer to current price than are resistance levels. - SPY consolidated under the 95.00 level this week. Price has support around the 90.00 area in the form of the 50 and 200 day moving averages, which are about to cross in a bullish fashion. Last week's high was 96.11. A break above that level should squeeze the shorts. [More...]

Teen Retail: Sell In May, And Go Far, Far Away

Sun, 24 May 2009 19:26:10 GMT

We all know consumption is the most prominent victim of this recession. Not only do we have to deal with soaring unemployment and tightening credit, but also the behavioral shift in America of spending less as a percentage of income. Obviously these factors are going to disproportionately hurt the sub sectors with the highest priced goods, or those considered the most discretionary such as luxury cars, high-end women’s clothing, etc. One sub-sector that will surely feel tremendous pain, however, is teen retail. It is common knowledge the national unemployment rate is expected to reach 10% or higher in the foreseeable future. This is well known, and priced in to most retail stocks. When you break unemployment down by age, however, a very grim signal for teenage spending in particular emerges. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the current[More...]

Dave Fry's Comments for May 20

Wed, 20 May 2009 23:34:29 GMT

MARKET COMMENT May 20, 2009 Wall Street has deals to get done and they were excited about BAC’s secondary this morning. The way these things work is simple: if you’re an institution, you better play ball and buy or you’re cut out of future deals you might really like. So we opened higher amid this enthusiasm and the bad news from HPQ last night was brushed-off. That’s the way it’s been with news—front burner it, back burner it and repeat.[More...]

Dave Fry's Comments for May 11

Mon, 11 May 2009 22:42:52 GMT

MARKET COMMENT May 11, 2009 This image again?!? Yeah, well it’s another one of those Mondays. We’ve had a bunch of them over the past two months.[More...]

Best Stocks Of 2009 Review: The First Third

Sun, 10 May 2009 17:46:29 GMT

More than a third of the year has passed and the markets have rebounded nicely from their lows to turn a small profit on the year. It seems that the worst may be behind us when it comes to equity prices as many stocks have rallied more than 50% this year alone. Here at Bullish Bankers we published a “Best Stocks of 2009? newsletter at the beginning of the year, and our equities have performed very admirably when compared to our benchmark, the S&P 500. This article is designed to give a recap of how our equities have performed and give some additional explanation to our initial stock picking process. Through Friday, May 8th, our BB2009 Index has outperformed the S&P 500 by 11.51% on a geometric basis ex-dividend payments. Beside each of the sectors I have listed our three picks and the comparable ETF to show our relative performance on a sector by sector basis.[More...]

Dave Fry's Market Comments For April 28

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 22:25:58 GMT

MARKET COMMENT April 28, 2009 I wish my Money & Banking class in college was this easy—hell, even gym was hard by comparison to current bank stress tests. Basically it’s an open book test allowing banks to set their own evaluations on some toxic waste and hope investors take it all in stride. The false and misleading statements from CEOs like BAC CEO Ken Lewis are, in ordinary times, shocking. These days it passes for business as usual.[More...]

Dave Fry's Market Comments For April 27

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 00:59:26 GMT

MARKET COMMENT April 27, 2009 I’ve been posting this image quite a bit recently since the past few Monday’s have been busts. There wasn’t much to cheer about so using a swine flu outbreak panic was a good reason to sell. It seems there are plenty of reasons to sell: light volume, high PEs, the BS (or, what you don’t know can’t hurt you) from Fed bank “stress tests”, the big run-up we’ve had in prices, auto bankruptcies and so forth. As you can see volume remains comparatively weak while breadth was negative today.[More...]

Market Report For Friday: Apr 17, 2009

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 13:00:45 GMT

(7:11am ET) There was plenty of economic data released in the US during the day; however the equity market sidetracked until 2pm ET, when with prices at modest losing levels on the week until that point, suddenly, and for no discernable reason, there was a rally that left the indexes with small gains through Thursday. Perhaps traders were anticipating a positive quarterly report from Google (GOOG +2.4% on +151% of average daily trading volume)? After the close, the company did not disappoint, beating both revenue and EPS estimates. The company posted net income of $1.42 billion ($5.16/share), up +8% from the $1.31 billion ($4.84/share) recorded during the same period a year ago. Revenue for 1Q2009 increased +10% to $4.07 billion, from $3.7 billion, excluding traffic acquisition costs. On average, analysts had expected earnings per share of $4.93 and revenue of $4.08 billion, according to Yahoo Finance. For the first[More...]

Daily Report For Thursday, Apr 16, 2009

Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:36:24 GMT

(8:25am ET) The main focus of traders today will be the 1Q2009 earnings report from JP Morgan (JPM), and the close scrutiny of the data and hype that will follow. After hitting a low of $14.93 in early March, JPM has rallied +118.1% to yesterday’s close of $32.56. There was a high of $34.15 on Tuesday. http://tinyurl.com/da6dcv JP Morgan reported Q1 net income of $2.14 billion, or $0.40/share, down -10% from a year earlier, but beat analysts' expectations. Revenue increased +48% to $25.03 billion. WSJ reported that CEO Jamie Dimon said the firm extended about $150 billion in new credit to consumer and corporate customers during the quarter. With a last hour rally spurred by the real estate investment trusts (REITS) ($DJR +8.7%) and Banks ($BKX +5.1%) in the Financial sector (XLF +4.8%), the US equity[More...]