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Daily Report for Thursday, Mar 5, 2009

Thu, 05 Mar 2009 14:05:00 GMT

Daily Report for Thurs., Mar. 5, 2009 (7:57am ET) Equity markets made steady progress on Wednesday as Energy (XLE +4.8%) and Basic Material (XLB) stocks rallied from the opening bell, giving traders hope that an upside move was about to commence. By the end of the session, the DJIA (+149.82 +2.23% to 6875.84, still down from Friday’s 7062.93 close); the S&P 500 (+16.54 +2.38% to 712.87, still down from Friday’s 735.09); and the NASDAQ Composite (+32.73 +2.48% to 1353.74, still down from 1377.84) showed promise. The Canadian markets were also firm as the Toronto Composite gained +183.13 +2.40% to 7814.75 (down from Friday’s 8123.02 close), while the Venture Board gained just +6.88 +0.83% to 830.95 (down from Friday’s 861.66). Earlier in the day today, Asia-Pacific equity markets were mixed: Australia (+0.73% to 3148.8); Japan (+1.95% to 7433.5); and Shanghai China (+1.04% to 2221.1) were strong, whereas Hong[More...]

Trading Strategy: Oil Stocks vs Oil

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 13:47:00 GMT

This strategy was inspired by the recent Bespoke post Oil Stocks Outperforming Oil in which Bespoke showed the historical ratio between the price of oil stocks and the price of oil itself. I’ve reproduced their graph below. Rising values indicate that oil stock prices are strong relative to oil, and falling values that oil stock prices are weak relative to oil. In this post, I’ll demonstrate a strategy that uses this ratio to trade the oil sector. [More...]

Giving Inflation A Chance

Sun, 14 Dec 2008 23:25:00 GMT

All I am saying is…let's give inflation a chance. (with apologies to the late John Lennon) OK, so I was wrong about the $100 oil before $150 but $200 before $50 forecast. The commodity markets have been clobbered by this global economic crisis. The World Bank’s latest forecast for commodities is “real food prices are expected to fall by 26 percent between 2008 and 2010, oil prices by 25 percent, and metals prices by 32 percent.” With the news that China’s exports are falling, the [More...]

Oil Plunges To 14-Month Low, Hits Below $70; Energy Shares Mix

Thu, 16 Oct 2008 16:37:00 GMT

Oil futures declined below $70-a-barrel mark on Thursday which is the lowest level in 14 months on reports that higher inflation rate and rising unemployment rate will prompt the drivers across the globe to cut down on fuel usage.[More...]

Energy Stocks Rise On Higher Crude, Weak Greenback, Rising Gold Futures

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 17:25:00 GMT

Energy stocks rebounded on Thursday on rising crude prices despite the U.S. Energy Department's report that nation's natural gas stockpiles have gone up by 67 billion cubic feet for the week ended Sept. 12.[More...]

Energy Stocks Bolster On Rising Crude Prices, OPEC Output Cuts

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 16:55:00 GMT

Oil companies' stocks gained upward momentum, following the U.S. Energy Department's report showing decline in inventory in its weekly report.[More...]

Weekly Wrap for the Week Ended 08/01/08

Mon, 04 Aug 2008 14:31:00 GMT

Holdings Watch: July performance was horrible. No two ways about it and I have several August positions that are in sad shape at this time although I’m expecting rebounds in E&P and Oil Service in short order. Closed Positions for the Week: Didn’t take a lot off the table but did add some small positions going (...)[More...]

AMEX Oil Index at a Good Buying Level

Mon, 28 Jul 2008 14:48:00 GMT

The sell-off in oil over the past two weeks has sparked a minor rebound in stock prices. Looking at the AMEX Oil Index (XOI), oil has dropped to a level it has seen 3 other times since last July. Each time before this, it has rebounded to ultimately set new highs. The index's RSI(14) is hitting it's lowest reading in the past two years, as its Stochastics reading. This all signifies a buying opportunity in oil, if you still believe the commodity is still in a secular bull market. If it fails to rebound from here, however, something may be changing in a long-term basis.The Trade 4 Cash system rebounded 1.34% on Friday, finishing[More...]

The Oil Stocks Now Join the Party

Wed, 09 Jul 2008 17:02:00 GMT

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The Warning Shot Has Been Fired

Sun, 06 Jul 2008 05:37:00 GMT

The warning shot over the bow has now been fired. As you probably remember I've been watching the coal stocks has an indication that energy is about to break. On Wednesday that warning came as the coal index plunged almost 14%. The parabolic trend has now been broken. If this plays out like 99% of parabola's play out then we should see a fast and spectacular collapse of the coal stocks as it becomes apparent to the market that the fundamental premises of this incredible rally proves false. Namely that demand is collapsing as the world continues into the global recession.It shouldn't be too long before oil rolls over and follows coal. At the moment oil is struggling to complete the T1 move that started in the depths of the 5th y[More...]